ISSN: 1595-5842 | E-ISSN: 3043-5463 | Google Indexed | DOI Registered with Crossref | Peer-Reviewed Open Access Journal
Alvan Journal of Social Sciences International Peer-Reviewed Open Access Journal
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Alvan Journal of Social Sciences (AJSS)

ISSN: 1595-5842 | E-ISSN: 3043-5463 | DOI Registered with Crossref | Google Indexed

A scholarly platform for interdisciplinary research in governance, procurement, sustainability, education, development studies, environmental management, logistics, and the wider social sciences.

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Volume 3, Issue 1 (2026)

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Research Article

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Prof. Ngozi Casmir Ebomuche

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Dr. Ambrose O. Abaneme

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← Volume 3, Issue 2 Contents

OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: A DUAL ANALYSIS

Using Ardl; Garch Models Justin C. Alugbuo; Precious C. Akobundu; Kenneth Emeh

Journal
Alvan Journal of Social Sciences
Volume/Issue
3(2), 2026
Pages
1-13
DOI
10.67638/ajss-2026-v3-i2-001
Keywords
Oil price volatility, GARCH framework, ARDL, Economic growth, Nigeria
Corresponding author
Justin C. Alugbuo
Email
jc.alugbuo@mouau.edu.ng
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Abstract

This study used a time series of the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) growth rate and oil prices for the years 1981-2024 to examine the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) analysis and the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to determine the volatilities of the prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and currency rates. The findings demonstrated that while negative shocks had a more favorable influence on Nigeria's economic growth, positive oil price shocks had a detrimental effect. In particular, RGDP growth was adversely affected by petrol price volatility, while Nigeria's economic development was positively correlated with gas price volatility. This included the conclusion that short-term currency fluctuations had no appreciable impact on RGDP growth. The study's findings suggested, among other things, that Nigeria's economy be diversified from oil to other industries like manufacturing, technology, and agriculture in order to lessen its apparent susceptibility to changes in oil prices. It also underlined the necessity of developing alternate energy sources, removing fuel subsidies, and expanding local refining capabilities in order to stabilize energy prices.

Citation

Using Ardl; Garch Models Justin C. Alugbuo; Precious C. Akobundu; Kenneth Emeh (2026). OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: A DUAL ANALYSIS. Alvan Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.67638/ajss-2026-v3-i2-001

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